CNBC Daily Open: Investors had much to cheer in 2025 — but 2026's starting out rocky
Key Points
- The U.S. conducted a military operation Saturday capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio appearing to backtrack on Trump's claim the U.S. will 'run' Venezuela
- Trump ordered Chinese-controlled chip firm HieFo to divest from its acquisition of U.S. chip assets, escalating U.S.-China tech tensions
- SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a $1.5 trillion valuation for its upcoming IPO, which would surpass Saudi Aramco's record, with Musk confirming reports of going public this year are 'accurate'
AI Summary
Market Summary: Rocky Start to 2026 After Strong 2025
2025 Performance Highlights:
The S&P 500 delivered strong returns in 2025, rallying 16.39% driven primarily by artificial intelligence enthusiasm. Google-parent Alphabet led the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, while Colombia topped global stock market performance. Bitcoin significantly outperformed Ethereum in cryptocurrency markets.
Venezuela Crisis Dominates Early 2026:
Markets face immediate geopolitical turbulence as the U.S. conducted a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to walk back President Trump's claim that the U.S. will "run" Venezuela, creating policy confusion.
Market Implications:
- Oil Markets: Trump stated U.S. oil companies will operate in Venezuela, though analysts project minimal near-term impact on crude prices. Venezuela's state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela reportedly maintains operational capacity.
- Geopolitical Concerns: Analysts suggest the Venezuela strike may not signal similar U.S. intervention regarding Taiwan. Denmark's Prime Minister cautioned against U.S. aggression toward allies.
Market Performance:
Friday's trading saw the S&P 500 rise 0.19% after intraday volatility. Monday brought strong gains in Asian markets, with South Korea and Japan jumping over 3% on defense stock strength.
Other Key Developments:
- Trump ordered Chinese-controlled chip firm HieFo to divest from its acquisition of New Jersey-based Emcore assets, escalating U.S.-China tech tensions
- December nonfarm payrolls report due Friday
- SpaceX reportedly targeting $1.5 trillion valuation for upcoming IPO, potentially breaking Saudi Aramco's record
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bearish | 88% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 78% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bearish | 95% |
| Consensus | Bearish | 87% |