European stocks to open higher as traders track Venezuela developments

CNBC | January 05, 2026 at 06:34 AM UTC
Bullish 84% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • U.K. and French indices expected to open 0.6% higher, with Germany up 0.5% and Italy up 0.7%
  • Oil prices edged higher as investors assessed potential supply impacts, though Venezuela produces less than 1 million barrels per day
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to walk back President Trump's comments about U.S. control, noting Washington would use leverage to meet policy goals

AI Summary

Summary: European Markets Set to Rise Amid Venezuela Political Upheaval

Market Opening Projections:

European stocks are poised to open higher on Monday, with the UK's FTSE and France's CAC expected to gain 0.6%, Germany's DAX up 0.5%, and Italy's index rising 0.7%, according to IG data.

Key Development:

Global markets are reacting to dramatic weekend events in Venezuela, where U.S. forces launched strikes and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The pair were transported to New York on Saturday to face drug-trafficking charges.

Political Context:

President Donald Trump indicated at a Saturday news conference that the U.S. would maintain control "until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition." However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to moderate this stance on Sunday, stating Washington would use leverage to achieve policy goals without confirming long-term occupation plans.

Commodity Impact:

Oil prices edged higher Monday as investors assessed potential disruptions to Venezuelan oil shipments. However, market impact may be limited as Venezuela, an OPEC member, produces less than 1 million barrels per day.

Broader Market Reaction:

Asian markets traded higher overnight, while U.S. futures remained steady as traders monitored the evolving situation.

Economic Calendar:

The European data calendar is light for the day, with only Spanish unemployment figures scheduled for release.

Market Implications:

The geopolitical development introduces uncertainty regarding Venezuelan oil supply and regional stability, though initial market sentiment appears cautiously positive with modest gains expected across European indices.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 85%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 84%