OPEC+ Maintains Steady Oil Production Amid Member Turmoil, Sources Report

• Eight OPEC+ members reaffirmed their November decision to pause output increases for January-March, avoiding discussion of crises affecting Venezuela, Russia, and tensions between Saudi Arabia and UAE
• The group had planned to raise output targets by 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025 (nearly 3% of global demand) but delayed increases due to weak winter demand
• Analysts note oil markets are currently driven more by political uncertainty than supply-demand fundamentals, with OPEC+ prioritizing stability over action amid the multiple member crises

OPEC+ Maintains Oil Production Policy Amid Political Turbulence

Key Developments:

OPEC+ held a brief Sunday meeting where eight member countries reaffirmed their decision to keep oil output unchanged, maintaining the production pause implemented through March 2025. The eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—collectively produce approximately half of the world's oil supply.

Market Context:

Oil prices declined more than 18% in 2024, marking the steepest yearly drop since 2020, driven primarily by oversupply concerns. Despite this, OPEC+ is prioritizing market stability over intervention, with planned output increases of 2.9 million barrels per day (roughly 3% of global demand) delayed from earlier in 2025.

Political Complications:

Multiple crises are affecting OPEC+ members:

• Venezuela: The U.S. seized President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, with President Trump announcing plans for Washington to control the country during a transitional period. Despite Venezuela holding the world's largest oil reserves (exceeding Saudi Arabia's), analysts expect no significant production boost for years due to infrastructure deterioration and investment requirements.
• Saudi-UAE tensions: Relations deteriorated last month over Yemen conflict, representing the worst crisis between the allies in decades.
• Russia and Iran: Russian oil exports face pressure from U.S. sanctions related to Ukraine, while Iran confronts domestic protests and U.S. intervention threats.

Analyst Perspective:

Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy noted that "oil markets are being driven less by supply-demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty," with OPEC+ choosing stability over action. The group's next meeting is scheduled for February 1.