5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

• S&P 500 up 17%, Dow up 14%, and Nasdaq up 21% year-to-date despite recent weakness, marking three straight years of double-digit gains
• Fed minutes reveal officials are divided on rate cuts, with some seeing inflation risks while others worry about job market weakness
• Gold futures fell 1.4% to $4,325/oz and silver plunged over 8% to $71.30/oz after CME raised margin requirements for the second time this week

Market Summary: December 31, 2025

U.S. stock futures point lower on the final trading day of 2025, with Dow and S&P 500 futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures declining 0.2%. Despite the weak finish, major indexes are set to close with impressive annual gains for the third consecutive year.

2025 Performance:

• S&P 500: +17% YTD
• Dow Jones: +14% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +21% YTD

The S&P 500 and Dow are positioned to end with eight straight monthly gains, supported by AI technology investments, Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and resilient consumer spending.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

FOMC meeting minutes revealed a divided Fed, with some officials prioritizing inflation control while others focus on supporting the weakening labor market. Analysts expect limited rate cuts in 2026, though incoming leadership changes in May could alter monetary policy direction. President Trump is expected to nominate a rate-cut-friendly Fed chair.

Precious Metals Decline:

Gold futures fell 1.4% to $4,325/oz, while silver plummeted over 8% to $71.30/oz after CME Group raised margin requirements for the second time this week. The move follows recent record highs driven by market volatility concerns and dollar weakness.

Economic Data:

Weekly jobless claims data, due at 8:30 AM ET, is expected to show 220,000 new filings. November unemployment reached 4.6%, a four-year high, heightening Fed concerns about labor market deterioration.

Market Hours:

Bond markets close at 2:00 PM ET today and remain shut Thursday for New Year's. Stock markets trade normally today and Friday.

Other Assets:

• Bitcoin: $88,800 (+$1,000)
• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.11% (down from 4.13%)