Trump narrows Fed chair picks, January decision expected

Fox Business | December 31, 2025 at 01:43 PM UTC

Neutral 85% Confidence Majority Agreement

Key Points

Trump continues attacking current Fed Chair Powell, calling him 'too late' on rate cuts and 'a fool' while threatening to sue over budget overruns on Fed headquarters renovations
BlackRock's Rick Rieder oversees $3.2 trillion in fixed income assets and called potential consideration for the role 'the greatest honor of my life'
Fed Governor Christopher Waller was among early dissenters pushing for rate cuts in July, signaling internal division within the central bank

AI Summary

Trump to Decide on Fed Chair Replacement by January

President Trump has announced he will select his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair by January, narrowing his shortlist to four candidates as current Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed the finalists after vetting candidates.

Key Candidates:

Kevin Hassett - Currently Director of the National Economic Council and reportedly one of the top two picks. Previously served as Trump's Council of Economic Advisors chairman. Recently credited Trump policies for Q3 2024's 4.3% GDP growth.

Kevin Warsh - Former Federal Reserve governor and the other leading contender. A longtime Fed critic, he has publicly criticized the central bank's poor forecasting track record and delayed response to inflation.

Rick Rieder - BlackRock's CIO of Global Fixed Income, overseeing $3.2 trillion in assets. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion total. Rieder called the potential nomination "the greatest honor of my life" when first approached.

Christopher Waller - Current Federal Reserve Board member who, along with Michelle Bowman, dissented early in July by voting for rate cuts, signaling internal Fed divisions.

Market Context:

Trump continues criticizing Powell, calling him "too late" on rate cuts and "a fool" while threatening legal action over the Fed's over-budget Washington D.C. headquarters renovation. Powell has stated he will complete his term through May 2026.

The December FOMC minutes revealed Fed members expect fewer rate cuts ahead, following three cuts in 2024. This leadership decision could significantly impact monetary policy direction as the economy navigates growth and inflation concerns.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model	Sentiment	Confidence
GPT-5-mini	Bullish	75%
Reasoning: The article signals a likely shift in Fed leadership toward Trump-selected candidates who have criticized the Fed for being slow to cut rates and include figures (e.g., Waller, Rieder) associated with earlier easing — a development markets would view as supportive for equities and bonds. Political tensions over Fed independence add risk but are secondary to the prospect of more accommodative policy.
Claude Sonnet 4.5	Bearish	85%
Reasoning: Trump's continued criticism of Powell as 'a fool' and 'too late,' combined with uncertainty around Fed leadership replacement in January, creates policy uncertainty. The narrowing of Fed chair candidates and potential leadership change introduces volatility concerns for markets that value central bank independence.
Gemini 2.5 Pro	Bullish	95%
Reasoning: The article highlights potential Fed chair candidates who are either explicitly dovish (Waller) or aligned with Trump's pro-growth, lower-rate agenda (Hassett, Warsh). A shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is generally bullish for equity markets as it lowers borrowing costs and encourages investment.
Consensus	Neutral	85%

Quick Actions

Read Original Back to Articles

Article Details

News ID: 3455613
Source: Fox Business
Analyzed: 55 days ago

Sentiment Confidence

Average Confidence 85%

High confidence in sentiment