Dow futures edge lower as Wall Street closes out 2025

• Fed minutes showed December rate decision was a 'close call' with several officials suggesting it could be 'some time' before further cuts, reinforcing slower policy easing expectations
• Markets pricing in 85% probability the Fed holds rates steady at January meeting, with weekly jobless claims data at 8:30 ET as the only significant economic release
• Year-end positioning and light trading volumes dominate as earnings season remains weeks away with no scheduled Fed speakers

Dow Futures Edge Lower as Wall Street Closes Out 2025

US stock futures pointed modestly lower Tuesday morning, with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures each down approximately 0.2%, marking a potential fourth consecutive losing session as 2025 draws to a close. Trading volumes remain thin due to the holiday period, which could lead to choppy market movements despite light news flow.

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, released Tuesday, revealed a divided central bank where the rate decision was described as a "close call." Several Fed officials indicated it could be "some time" before another rate cut, tempering investor expectations for easier monetary policy. Current market pricing shows approximately 85% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its January meeting.

The only significant economic data point scheduled is the weekly initial jobless claims report at 8:30 AM ET, which will provide a final labor market snapshot before 2026. With earnings season still weeks away and no Fed speakers scheduled, Tuesday's session is expected to focus more on year-end portfolio adjustments than major market moves.

The cautious tone reflects ongoing uncertainty about the pace of future Fed rate cuts, with investors recalibrating expectations from more optimistic projections earlier in the year. Market participants appear reluctant to make significant bets on New Year's Eve, suggesting a quiet close to 2025 unless unexpected economic data triggers volatility.