10-year Treasury yield dips as investors await final economic data of 2025

• 10-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.112% while 2-year yield dropped to 3.446% in early morning trading
• Weekly jobless claims data due at 8:30 a.m. ET marks the last economic data point of 2025 and could influence Fed rate cut expectations
• Fed's December meeting minutes revealed a divided committee on the recent rate cut decision, with traders slightly increasing bets for another cut in April

Treasury Yields Edge Lower Ahead of Final 2025 Economic Data

The 10-year Treasury yield declined slightly to 4.112% early Wednesday, down one basis point, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.446%. This modest movement comes as investors position themselves ahead of the week's jobless claims data, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on December 27.

Key Yield Movements:

• 10-year: 4.112% (-1 basis point)
• 2-year: 3.446% (-1 basis point)
• 30-year: 4.792% (-2.1 basis points)
• 1-year: 3.491% (+2.1 basis points)

The jobless claims report represents the final economic data release of 2025, with market participants closely watching for signals about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction. This scrutiny follows the Fed's release of minutes from its December 9-10 meeting, which revealed a divided committee that ultimately voted to implement a rate cut in what appeared to be a closer decision than initially perceived.

U.S. equity markets traded slightly negative following the minutes' release, while traders marginally increased their expectations for another Fed rate cut in April. The division within the Fed, as revealed in the minutes, suggests ongoing uncertainty about the pace and timing of future monetary policy adjustments.

The Treasury market's subdued activity reflects a cautious stance as investors await fresh economic indicators that could influence the Fed's 2026 policy trajectory. With yields moving inversely to prices, the slight decline in yields indicates modest buying interest in government bonds as traders position for potential economic headwinds or policy shifts in the new year.