Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan Predicts Tariffs Will Ease in 2026

• Nearly half of product leaders at goods-producing companies ($100M-$1B revenue) report tariffs are already impacting their business finances
• Small businesses face compounding challenges beyond tariffs, including labor shortages and uncertainty around immigration policies
• Moynihan expects higher rates for countries that won't agree to U.S. purchases or lower non-tariff barriers, with China facing special scrutiny over rare earth minerals and AI

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan predicts tariff tensions will ease in 2026, with the Trump administration moving toward "de-escalation, not escalation." In a CBS News interview on December 28, Moynihan forecasted average tariffs settling at 15%, up from the current 10% baseline, describing this 5% increase as having minimal broad economic impact.

Moynihan noted exceptions for specific countries, highlighting China's unique position due to national security concerns involving rare earth minerals and AI technologies. Mexico was also mentioned as requiring different treatment. He suggested higher rates may apply to countries refusing U.S. purchases or maintaining non-tariff barriers.

As the nation's largest small business lender, Bank of America observes its small business customers facing challenges beyond tariffs, particularly labor shortages linked to unsettled immigration policies. Moynihan emphasized that businesses need clarity on these policies regardless of their stance on them.

Middle-market companies ($100 million to $1 billion annual revenue) are experiencing significant pressure. According to PYMNTS Intelligence data from October, nearly 50% of product leaders at goods-producing companies reported tariffs impacting their business finances. These firms are simultaneously navigating an uncertain economic environment, complicated by the federal government's cancellation of advance Q3 GDP estimates and delayed retail sales reports showing slowing consumer spending.

The article notes that 2025 has "rewrote the realities" of supply chains, with tariff-related vendor oversight blind spots quickly escalating into material financial, legal, and reputational threats for companies. This underscores the broader implications of trade policy uncertainty on business operations and strategic planning across multiple sectors of the U.S. economy.